Haultain Research

Haultain Research

The Woke Bloc Wins — And the West Pays

Marco Navarro-Génie's avatar
Marco Navarro-Génie
Apr 29, 2025
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Here are some quick initial comments about last night's results. There will be more over the coming days, but this is the first reaction.

The 45th federal election is over, and Canada has voted itself into another Liberal-led minority. Mark Carney’s Liberals secured around 168 seats — more than any other faction — but still short of the 172 needed for a majority. Reviving the old NDP alliance is mathematically feasible, but it may not be politically wise for either party at this point. Jagmeet Singh’s party collapsed into regional irrelevance, and Singh himself fell on his sword.

Mark Carney remains prime minister to carry the Trudeau legacy on

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives performed better than recent expectations, gaining 25 seats and significantly narrowing the popular vote gap, pulling 41.4% to the Liberals’ 43.5%. It was a strong national showing built on frustration with Liberal economic failures.

But it wasn’t enough. Despite real growth, the Conservatives fell short of forming government.

Adding insult to injury, Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton, Ontario. Will he hold on as leader?

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